For the past quarter-century, Pennsylvania has been the Great White Whale for the GOP in presidential contests. It’s always in sight, but ultimately stays Democratic, as it has now done in six consecutive elections dating back to 1992. Donald Trump has focused on the Keystone State as part of a Rust Belt strategy for victory. If he is to lose Sunbelt states with growing minority populations, he’ll need states like Pennsylvania to give him an Electoral College majority. But the change in voters’ attitudes has not been sufficient to bring Pennsylvania into the GOP fold. This is because their numbers are not increasing. As with the past few elections, we can expect that Trump to carry most counties in western and central Pennsylvania by healthy margins. The problem isn’t in the west among blue-collar workers who have Democratic roots. The problem is in the east among voters with Republican roots, especially women.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/06/30/how_not_to_win_pennsylvania_131058.html
