If the airport bombings in Istanbul are a sign the Islamic State is losing, I’d hate to see what winning looks like. ISIL is being blamed for the bombing at the Istanbul Ataturk airport on Monday that killed 42 and wounded more than 230. Secretary of State John Kerry said Tuesday that the attack was not a sign of terrorist strength but of weakness. It is true that ISIL has suffered recent reverses. This week, Iraqi forces retook the city of Fallujah, which ISIL had controlled since January 2014. Coalition forces are pushing ISIL back from the Turkish border in Syria. The U.S. government says that in the last year ISIL has lost 40% of the territory it controlled in Iraq and 10% to 20% in Syria. The Islamic State’s vision of a Levantine caliphate is being gradually whittled away. However, the jihadists are not confined by lines on a map. Contemporary jihadist networks are complex, adaptive and opportunistic. When they feel pressure in one area they move to another. ISIL may be shrinking in Iraq and Syria, but it is growing in North Africa, principally in Libya, Tunisia and Sinai.
Are we sure ISIL is losing?
