Global warming has been in the forefront of science and politics for over a decade. Over that time, scientific thought and reasoning on the topic have evolved from pure science to a twist of tales and misleading statements. The global warming agenda has been hijacked by politicians and an array of non-atmospheric scientists including geologists, mathematicians, geographers, environmental engineers, and biologists. If you ask a meteorologist about global warming, the answer you’ll often hear is one of skepticism and doubt, intertwined with a more thorough understanding of how the atmosphere actually works.
So, as a meteorologist, I present the real and final truths about global warming and the future of our climate and weather.
Truth #1: The earth is in a warming period.
Over the last 100 years, the Earth has warmed between 1 and 2 degrees Celsius. This is part of a larger 13,000 year warming trend. The introduction of carbon into the atmosphere during the industrial age helped accelerate warming. Some warming can also be attributed to natural global climate oscillations, such as El Nino.
20th century warming seemed to appear suddenly. Counter intuitively, the suddenness may be attributed to cleaner air. The Clean Air Act, and the associated removal of many atmospheric particulates, unmasked warming that was already occurring. Although CO2 has increased, overall the environment is cleaner now than in decades. Twenty years ago it would be unthinkable to see a bald eagle flying over a suburban northeastern landscape. Today, it is an occurrence so regular that it is almost a mundane experience.
Finally, it is worth noting that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has stated that warming up to 3 degrees will produce beneficial impacts in some areas and harmful ones in others. And despite the warming, there has been no quantifiable increase in the strength or frequency of severe storms. In fact, there has been a decrease in hurricane activity over the last 50 years. Additionally, NOAA has published several reports denying the link between drought and heat wave events to global warming.
Truth #2: The climate has stabilized.
Over the past 18 years, while the climate has remained in a warm period, there is no longer any acceleration. The climate appears to have stabilized despite the addition of CO2 and without the injection of any natural particulates from volcanic eruptions. There is evidence, despite the tinkering efforts of many groups, that global surface temperatures have decreased lately. According to Temperature.Global, 2015 surface temperatures were 0.54 degrees below normal, and so far 2016 is running 1.42 degrees below normal. This data is calculated using unadjusted surface temperatures, meaning the data hasn’t been changed to serve any agendas.
Truth #3: Climate models were (and are) inaccurate.
Climate models, like those that generate weather forecasts, are not infallible. In fact, quite the opposite. Like all scientific models, they rely on correct input data. Surface temperatures are often questionable due to poor maintenance and calibration, and poor placement. For example, one station in New Jersey was 5 degrees warmer than surrounding stations for over two years. In California, a station was placed adjacent to air conditioning exhaust fans. Imagine the condition and placement of stations in remote regions of Africa and Asia. NOAA has methods to smooth these stations out, and therein is the problem. The smoothing makes assumptions, and usually toward warming.
But the largest model flaw has been highlighted by the pause in warming. Not a single climate model predicted the pause. This could be excused if it were a mere blip of a few years. But an 18 year period is very much scientifically significant. We should not be basing public policy on unreliable computer models.
Truth #4: The atmosphere will do what it wants.
Regardless of our research and postulates, the atmosphere has some tricks up its sleeve. Meteorologists already know and expect the atmosphere to be inherently chaotic and unpredictable. There are mechanisms we do not yet understand, and therefore cannot model successfully. This is something climate scientists need to understand. The atmosphere, and its interaction with the ocean and entire global ecosystem, seems to have accepted the infiltration of CO2, warmed, and adjusted. This shouldn’t be a complete surprise. The atmosphere is constantly shuffling warm and cold air around in order to maintain a balance of both temperatures and energy.
Where do we go from here?
Economics and technology minimize the amount of carbon we can realistically reduce. Some research has shown that it is utterly pointless to attempt to control the climate. If we cannot control the weather to any significance, we have absolutely no chance of controlling long term climate trends. The same research says that it is easier and less costly to control the impacts of climate variation. This make much more sense, especially if reducing atmospheric carbon has little effect or unforeseen consequences (and there always are).
Still, most everyone in modern western civilization enjoys a cleaner environment, and everyone certainly benefits from it. We should continue protecting the environment as much as possible without eroding long term economic growth. But the atmosphere will continue to evolve on its own with or without our help. There could be a day, possibly not in the distant future, where a large scale volcanic eruption or environmental catastrophe would cool the earth so much, we’d long for the days of our mere 2 degree Celsius warming.
But will the warming resume its acceleration? At some point the climate stabilization will end. Based on the current climate models, trends, and raw surface data, the climate is likely to slowly cool. The anthropogenic warming era will then be over.
